2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey
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Elections in New Jersey |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4][5]
Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[13] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[14] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[15] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county were available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[16]
Republican primary
Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[17] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[18]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump (incumbent) | 457,212 | 100 | 49 |
Total | 457,212 | 100.00 | 49 |
Democratic primary
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[20] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 814,188 | 84.92 | 121 |
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 140,412 | 14.65 | 5 |
Uncommitted | 4,162 | 0.43 | |
Total | 958,762 | 100% | 126 |
Green primary
Candidate | Votes | Percentage[a] | National delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Howie Hawkins | 44 | 78.6% | 5 |
Dario Hunter | 4 | 7.1% | 0 |
Jesse Ventura | 3 | 5.4% | 0 |
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry | 2 | 3.6% | 0 |
Bernie Sanders | 2 | 3.6% | 0 |
Kent Mesplay | 1 | 1.8% | 0 |
Susan Buchser-Lochocki | 0 | 0% | 0 |
Dennis Lambert | 0 | 0% | 0 |
Chad Wilson | 0 | 0% | 0 |
David Rolde | 0 | 0% | 0 |
Total | 56 | 100.00% | 5 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid D | October 28, 2020 |
Inside Elections[23] | Safe D | October 16, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Safe D | October 8, 2020 |
Politico[25] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[26] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[27] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[28] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[29] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[30] | Likely D | September 27, 2020 |
270towin[31] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[32] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[33] | Likely D | October 30, 2020 |
NBC News[34] | Likely D | August 6, 2020 |
538[35] | Solid D | September 27, 2020 |
Fox News[36] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win[37] | October 9 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 56.5% | 37.3% | 6.2% | Biden +19.2 |
Real Clear Politics[38] | September 4 – October 13, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 54.7% | 37.3% | 8.0% | Biden +17.4 |
FiveThirtyEight[39] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 58.4% | 37.9% | 3.7% | Biden +20.4 |
Average | 56.5% | 37.5% | 7.8% | Biden +19.0 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,870 (LV) | ± 2% | 38%[d] | 59% | - | - | – | – |
Research Co.[41] | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 59% | - | - | 1%[e] | 5% |
Swayable[42] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 40% | 59% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 6,472 (LV) | – | 37% | 60% | - | - | – | – |
Swayable[43] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 386 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 38% | 62% | 0% | 0% | – | – |
Rutgers-Eagleton[44] | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 834 (LV) | ± 4% | 37% | 59% | - | - | 1%[f] | 1% |
Stockton College[45] | Oct 7–13, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 36% | 56% | - | - | – | – |
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[46] | Oct 5–13, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 56% | - | - | 10%[g] | – |
Fairleigh Dickinson University[47] | Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 53% | - | - | 5%[h] | 4% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,952 (LV) | – | 37% | 60% | - | - | – | 3% |
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[48] | Sep 8–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | - | - | 10%[g] | – |
Emerson College[49] | Sep 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40%[i] | 58% | - | - | 2%[j] | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,309 (LV) | – | 40% | 57% | - | - | – | 3% |
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[50] | Aug 5–13, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.383% | 33% | 52% | - | - | 15%[k] | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,426 (LV) | – | 37% | 61% | - | - | – | 2% |
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[51] | Jul 7–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.383% | 33% | 51% | - | - | 7%[l] | 8% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 37% | 61% | - | - | – | 3% |
Quinnipiac[52] | Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | 54% | - | - | 3%[m] | 8% |
Rutgers-Eagleton[53] | Apr 22 – May 2, 2020 | 689 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 33% | 56% | - | - | 5%[n] | 7% |
Monmouth University[54] | Apr 16–19, 2020 | 635 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 54% | - | - | 2% | 6% |
Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 35% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joseph R. Biden Jr. Kamala D. Harris |
2,608,400 | 57.34% | +1.88% | |
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,883,313 | 41.40% | +0.05% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
31,677 | 0.70% | −1.17% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
14,202 | 0.31% | −0.67% | |
Unity | Bill Hammons Eric Bodenstab |
3,255 | 0.07% | ±0.00% | |
Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
2,954 | 0.06% | −0.10% | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
2,928 | 0.06% | +0.02% | |
Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
2,728 | 0.06% | +0.01% | |
Total votes | 4,549,353 | 100.00% |
By county
County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Atlantic | 73,808 | 52.71% | 64,438 | 46.02% | 1,785 | 1.27% | 9,370 | 6.69% | 140,031 |
Bergen | 285,967 | 57.44% | 204,417 | 41.06% | 7,454 | 1.50% | 81,550 | 16.38% | 497,838 |
Burlington | 154,595 | 58.86% | 103,345 | 39.35% | 4,710 | 1.79% | 51,250 | 19.51% | 262,650 |
Camden | 175,065 | 65.91% | 86,207 | 32.46% | 4,327 | 1.63% | 88,858 | 33.45% | 265,599 |
Cape May | 23,941 | 41.33% | 33,158 | 57.24% | 834 | 1.43% | -9,217 | -15.91% | 57,933 |
Cumberland | 32,742 | 52.32% | 28,952 | 46.27% | 881 | 1.41% | 3,790 | 6.05% | 62,575 |
Essex | 266,820 | 77.07% | 75,475 | 21.80% | 3,892 | 1.13% | 191,345 | 55.27% | 346,187 |
Gloucester | 86,702 | 49.99% | 83,340 | 48.05% | 3,411 | 1.96% | 3,362 | 1.94% | 173,453 |
Hudson | 181,452 | 72.45% | 65,698 | 26.23% | 3,308 | 1.32% | 115,754 | 46.22% | 250,458 |
Hunterdon | 39,457 | 46.60% | 43,153 | 50.96% | 2,063 | 2.44% | -3,696 | -4.36% | 84,673 |
Mercer | 122,532 | 69.14% | 51,641 | 29.14% | 3,050 | 1.72% | 70,891 | 40.00% | 177,223 |
Middlesex | 226,250 | 60.22% | 143,467 | 38.19% | 5,975 | 1.59% | 82,783 | 22.03% | 375,692 |
Monmouth | 181,291 | 47.91% | 191,808 | 50.69% | 5,291 | 1.40% | -10,517 | -2.78% | 378,390 |
Morris | 153,881 | 51.14% | 141,134 | 46.90% | 5,902 | 1.96% | 12,747 | 4.24% | 300,917 |
Ocean | 119,456 | 34.85% | 217,740 | 63.53% | 5,550 | 1.62% | -98,274 | -28.68% | 342,746 |
Passaic | 129,097 | 57.55% | 92,009 | 41.02% | 3,224 | 1.43% | 37,088 | 16.53% | 224,330 |
Salem | 14,479 | 42.53% | 18,827 | 55.31% | 736 | 2.16% | -4,348 | -12.78% | 34,042 |
Somerset | 111,173 | 59.49% | 71,996 | 38.52% | 3,722 | 1.99% | 39,177 | 20.97% | 186,891 |
Sussex | 34,481 | 39.03% | 51,701 | 58.52% | 2,173 | 2.45% | -17,220 | -19.49% | 88,355 |
Union | 170,310 | 67.01% | 80,038 | 31.49% | 3,794 | 1.50% | 90,272 | 35.52% | 254,142 |
Warren | 24,901 | 40.78% | 34,769 | 56.95% | 1,387 | 2.27% | -9,868 | -16.17% | 61,057 |
Totals | 2,608,400 | 57.14% | 1,883,313 | 41.25% | 73,469 | 1.61% | 725,087 | 15.89% | 4,565,182 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
- Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
By congressional district
Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[57]
District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 62.1% | 36.6% | Donald Norcross |
2nd | 47.9% | 50.8% | Jeff Van Drew |
3rd | 49.2% | 49.4% | Andy Kim |
4th | 44.1% | 54.6% | Chris Smith |
5th | 51.9% | 46.7% | Josh Gottheimer |
6th | 57.2% | 41.5% | Frank Pallone Jr. |
7th | 54.2% | 44.3% | Tom Malinowski |
8th | 71.8% | 27.2% | Albio Sires |
9th | 62.2% | 36.8% | Bill Pascrell |
10th | 84.2% | 15.0% | Donald Payne Jr. |
11th | 52.7% | 46.0% | Mikie Sherrill |
12th | 67.3% | 31.4% | Bonnie Watson Coleman |
Analysis
As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.
Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[59]
Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[59] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[60] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.
Voter demographics
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
---|---|---|---|
Total vote | 57 | 41 | 100 |
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 92 | 7 | 34 |
Moderates | 63 | 35 | 35 |
Conservatives | 11 | 88 | 31 |
Party (including leaners) | |||
Democrat or lean democrat | 95 | 4 | 53 |
Republican or lean republican | 10 | 89 | 42 |
Independent | 55 | 41 | 5 |
Gender | |||
Men | 49 | 49 | 47 |
Women | 64 | 35 | 53 |
Marital status | |||
Married | 54 | 44 | 61 |
Never married | 68 | 30 | 23 |
Gender by marital status | |||
Married men | 47 | 49 | 29 |
Married women | 58 | 41 | 31 |
Unmarried men | - | - | 15 |
Unmarried women | 68 | 31 | 25 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 50 | 49 | 71 |
Black | 86 | 12 | 11 |
Latino | 72 | 27 | 11 |
Asian | 76 | 23 | 3 |
Other | - | - | 3 |
Gender by race/ethnicity | |||
White men | 42 | 56 | 33 |
White women | 56 | 44 | 38 |
Black men | - | - | 4 |
Black women | - | - | 7 |
Latino men | - | - | 6 |
Latina women | - | - | 6 |
Other | 66 | 32 | 7 |
Religion | |||
Protestant/Other Christian | 56 | 42 | 28 |
Catholic | 47 | 52 | 39 |
Jewish | 70 | 30 | 8 |
Other religion | 67 | 32 | 7 |
None | 73 | 25 | 17 |
White evangelical or born-again Christian | |||
Yes | - | - | 9 |
No | 59 | 40 | 91 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 59 | 40 | 6 |
25–29 years old | 66 | 32 | 4 |
30–39 years old | 66 | 33 | 15 |
40–49 years old | 57 | 41 | 14 |
50–64 years old | 54 | 44 | 32 |
65 and older | 54 | 46 | 28 |
Age by race | |||
White 18–29 years old | 57 | 42 | 7 |
White 30–44 years old | 53 | 46 | 14 |
White 45–64 years old | 47 | 52 | 28 |
White 65 and older | 47 | 52 | 22 |
Nonwhite 18–29 years old | 69 | 29 | 4 |
Nonwhite 30–44 years old | 79 | 19 | 8 |
Nonwhite 45–64 years old | 75 | 24 | 11 |
Nonwhite 65 and older | - | - | 6 |
Sexual orientation | |||
LGBT | - | - | 6 |
Non-LGBT | 57 | 42 | 94 |
Education | |||
High school or less | 54 | 44 | 25 |
Some college education or Associate degree | 51 | 47 | 27 |
College graduate | 63 | 36 | 30 |
Postgraduate degree | 60 | 39 | 18 |
Education by race | |||
White college graduates | 57 | 42 | 35 |
White no college degree | 42 | 56 | 35 |
Black college graduates | - | - | 4 |
Black no college degree | - | - | 7 |
Latino college graduates | - | - | 4 |
Latino no college degree | 69 | 29 | 7 |
All others | 66 | 32 | 7 |
Education by race/gender | |||
White women with college degrees | 65 | 34 | 17 |
White women without college degrees | 47 | 52 | 20 |
White men with college degrees | 49 | 50 | 18 |
White men without college degrees | 35 | 63 | 15 |
Nonwhite women with college degrees | 84 | 15 | 7 |
Nonwhite women without college degrees | 83 | 15 | 9 |
Nonwhite men with college degrees | 68 | 30 | 6 |
Nonwhite men without college degrees | 66 | 32 | 8 |
Income | |||
Under $50,000 | 63 | 36 | 26 |
$50,000–99,999 | 55 | 44 | 37 |
$100,000 or more | 55 | 43 | 37 |
Military service | |||
Veterans | - | - | 9 |
Veteran in household | - | - | 14 |
Non-veterans | 63 | 37 | 77 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Racial inequality | 80 | 20 | 9 |
COVID-19 pandemic | 75 | 24 | 43 |
Economy | 20 | 78 | 26 |
Crime and safety | - | - | 4 |
Health care | 79 | 19 | 10 |
Climate change | 91 | 9 | 3 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 67 | 31 | 15 |
Suburban | 59 | 40 | 62 |
Small town | 48 | 51 | 15 |
Rural | 44 | 56 | 8 |
Family's financial situation today | |||
Getting ahead | - | - | 13 |
Falling behind | 66 | 34 | 17 |
Holding steady | 57 | 43 | 70 |
Abortion should be | |||
Legal in all/most cases | 70 | 29 | 71 |
Illegal in all/most cases | 25 | 72 | 28 |
Climate change is a serious problem | |||
Yes | 77 | 22 | 75 |
No | 11 | 89 | 25 |
See also
- United States presidential elections in New Jersey
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 New Jersey elections
- Bilingual elections requirement for New Jersey (per Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006)[62]
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- ^ This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ a b "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
- ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
- ^ "For another candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%
References
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- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Swayable
- ^ Rutgers-Eagleton
- ^ Stockton College
- ^ DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
- ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
- ^ DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
- ^ Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Rutgers-Eagleton
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ a b c d e f Fairleigh Dickinson University
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- ^ "2004 Presidential Election - Essex County" (PDF).
- ^ "New Jersey Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ "Covered Areas for Voting Rights Bilingual Election Materials—2015", Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006, Determinations Under Section 203, Federal Register, December 5, 2016, retrieved October 13, 2020,
A Notice by the Census Bureau on 12/05/2016
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
New Jersey
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New Jersey", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "New Jersey: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of New Jersey". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- New Jersey at Ballotpedia