Following the Tibetan Buddhism belief in the principle of rebirth,^[1][2] the Dalai Lama is believed by adherents to be able to choose the body into which he is reincarnated. That person, when found, will then become the next Dalai Lama. In 1793, the Qianlong Emperor introduced the Golden Urn to eliminate cheating and corruption in the selection process, and to prevent greedy family with multiple reincarnated rinpoches and lamas. The government of China has promulgated procedural requirements for this process, but there is disagreement among supporters and opponents of that government about the applicability of those rules.^[3]

The 14th Dalai Lama has said that he could reincarnate as an attractive woman. It is also possible that he does not reincarnate at all. Chinese officials have accused him of "flip-flopping" on the issue. Critics have accused the Chinese government of interfering in religious affairs.

According to Tibetan Buddhism the Tulkus do not have to take rebirth in a continuous sequence of lives in this world.^[4]

The selection process for the next Dalai Lama has drawn interest and involvement from various nations, including Mongolia, which maintains strong ties to Tibetan Buddhism.^[5] Mongolia's unique position between China and India adds another layer of complexity to the succession issue.

According to Buddhist scholars it is the responsibility of the High Lamas of the Gelugpa tradition and the Tibetan government to seek out and find the next Dalai Lama following the death of the incumbent. The process can take a long time. It took four years to find the 14th (current) Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso. The search is generally limited to Tibet, although the current Dalai Lama has said that there is a chance that he will not be reborn, and that if he is, it would not be in a country under Chinese rule. To help them in their search, the High Lamas may have visions or dreams, and try to find signs. For example, if the previous Dalai Lama was cremated, they can watch the direction of the smoke to suggest where the rebirth will take place.^{[citation needed]}

When these signs have been interpreted and a successor found, there is a series of tests believed to ensure that they are the genuine reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama. They assess the candidate against a set of criteria, and will present the child with various objects to see if they can identify those which belonged to the previous Dalai Lama. If a single candidate has been identified, the High Lamas will report their findings to eminent individuals and then to the Government. If more than one candidate is identified, the true successor is found by officials and monks drawing lots in a public ceremony. Once identified, the successful candidate and his family are taken to Lhasa (or Dharamsala) where the child will study the Buddhist scriptures in order to prepare for spiritual leadership.^[6]

In a 2004 interview with Time, the current Dalai Lama stated:

The institution of the Dalai Lama, and whether it should continue or not, is up to the Tibetan people. If they feel it is not relevant, then it will cease and there will be no 15th Dalai Lama. But if I die today I think they will want another Dalai Lama. The purpose of reincarnation is to fulfill the previous [incarnation's] life task. My life is outside Tibet, therefore my reincarnation will logically be found outside. But then, the next question: Will the Chinese accept this or not? China will not accept. The Chinese government most probably will appoint another Dalai Lama, like it did with the Panchen Lama. Then there will be two Dalai Lamas: one, the Dalai Lama of the Tibetan heart, and one that is officially appointed.^[7]

The Dalai Lama stated in 2007 that the next Dalai Lama could possibly be a woman, remarking, "If a woman reveals herself as more useful the lama could very well be reincarnated in this form".^[8] On 24 September 2011, the Dalai Lama issued a statement concerning his reincarnation giving exact signs on how the next one should be chosen, the place of rebirth and that the Chinese appointed Dalai Lama should not be trusted.^[9]

In 2015, the 14th Dalai Lama has claimed he may be reincarnated as a mischievous blonde woman.^[10] In 2019, the 14th Dalai Lama said that if a female Dalai Lama comes, she should be more attractive.^[11]

In October 2019, the 14th Dalai Lama stated that because of the feudal origin of the Dalai Lama reincarnation system, the reincarnation system should end.^[12][13][14]

Speaking on the sidelines of the annual meeting of parliament, Chinese politician Padma Choling accused the 14th Dalai Lama of flip-flopping with his various statements on the issue, and of hypocrisy as he himself was reincarnated. He also accused the 14th Dalai Lama of profaning Tibetan Buddhism "by doubting his reincarnation".^[3]

In response, Lobsang Sangay, Sikyong (prime minister) of the Tibetan government-in-exile, said, "It's like Fidel Castro saying, 'I will select the next Pope and all the Catholics should follow.'"^[15]

On August 3, 2007, State Religious Affairs Bureau Order No. 5 was issued by China which states that all the reincarnations of tulkus of Tibetan Buddhism must get government approval.^[16] Rule 8 says approval is required if lot-drawing process using Golden Urn is exempted.^[17]

In 2015, the Chairperson of the Standing Committee of the People's Congress of Tibet Padma Choling (白玛赤林) said:

Whether [the Dalai Lama] wants to cease reincarnation or not [...] this decision is not up to him. When he became the 14th Dalai Lama, it was not his decision. He was chosen following a strict system dictated by religious rules and historical tradition and also with the approval of the central government. Can he decide when to stop reincarnating? That is impossible.^[18]

In October 2019, Chinese Foreign Ministry speaker Geng Shuang stated:

The institution of reincarnation of the Dalai Lama has been in existence for several hundred years. The 14th (present) Dalai Lama himself was found and recognised following rituals and conventions, and his succession was approved by the then central government. Therefore, the reincarnation must comply with Chinese laws and regulations, follow rituals and historic conventions.^[19]

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is officially atheist although it tolerates religion in other members of the public.^[20] It is not easy to become a 'living Buddha' in China. After years of meditation and discipline comes the bureaucracy. The CCP is uncomfortable with forces beyond its control and has for years attempted to regulate the religious affairs of Tibetan Buddhists, including their reincarnations.^[21]

In 1792, the Qianlong Emperor published The Discourse of Lama, in which he explained why he thought it would be a fair system of choosing the reincarnated lamas with Golden Urn, as opposed to choosing reincarnated lamas based on private designation, or based on one person's decision. Also, he stated that Golden Urn was invented to eliminate greedy family with multiple reincarnated rinpoches or lamas.

Since the creation of the Golden Urn in 1793, Golden Urn process and approval process for either exemption or confirmation have always been required for all the Dalai Lamas including the 13th Dalai Lama, and 14th Dalai Lama. The incumbent 14th Dalai Lama once suggested the different possibilities of reincarnation for the next (15th) Dalai Lama, but because of the feudal origin of the Dalai Lama reincarnation system, he suggested the reincarnation system should end.^[22] The selection process remains controversial, as China has declared ownership on the selection process using the Golden Urn for the next Dalai Lama.^{[23][24][25][26]}

The first article of 29-Article Ordinance for the More Effective Governing of Tibet states that the purpose of Golden Urn is to ensure prosperity of Gelug, and to eliminate cheating and corruption in the selection process.^[27] The Qianlong Emperor published The Discourse of Lama in 1792 to explain the history of lamas and the reincarnation system, while also explaining why he thought it would be a fair system of choosing them, as opposed to choosing reincarnated lamas based on private designation, or based on one person's decision.^[28] The edict was also claimed to reduce the influence of corrupt families acquiring influence by holding multiple religious positions.^{[29][30][31][32]}

In 1814, the registration process for all 167 Tulkus in Tibet, the Kham area and Inner Mongolia was completed.^[33]

On 26 January 1940, the Reting Rinpoche requested the Central Government to exempt Lhamo Dhondup from lot-drawing process using Golden Urn to become the 14th Dalai Lama.^[34][35] The request was approved by the Central Government of Republic of China in 1940.^[26]

In 2004, the Religious Affairs Regulations (Chinese: 宗教事务条例)^[36] was published by the Central Government of the People's Republic of China after the Method of Reincarnation of Lamas (Chinese: 喇嘛轉世辦法)^[37] was abolished by Republic of China. Article 36 of the Religious Affairs Regulations states that the reincarnation system must follow religious rituals and historical customs, and be approved by the government.

The Golden Urn became institutionalized in the 2007 State Religious Affairs Bureau Order No. 5 (Chinese: 国家宗教事务局令第5号) of the Central Government. Article 7 states that no group or individual may carry out activities related to searching for and identifying the reincarnated soul boy of the Living Buddha without authorization.^[38] Article 8 states that lot-drawing ceremony with Golden Urn is applicable to those rinpoches, or lamas who were reincarnated previously in history. Request of exemption is handled by State Administration for Religious Affairs, for those with great impact, request of exemption is handled by State Council.^[39]

According to Laxianjia, deputy director of China Tibetology Research Center:

"Although the Dalai Lama is currently outside China, his reincarnation is still part of the Gelug tradition and under the jurisdiction of the Chinese government, as most temples are located within China,"^[40]

Some analysts opine that even if China uses the Golden Urn to pick a future Dalai Lama, they would lack the legitimacy and popular support needed to be functional, as Tibetan Buddhists all over the world would not recognize them.^[41] According to Tibetan scholar Robert Barnett:

"This is one of the chief indicators that China has failed in Tibet. It's failed to find consistent leadership in Tibet by any Tibetan lama who is really respected by Tibetan people, and who at the same time endorses Communist Party rule."^[41]

Despite the tradition of selecting young children, the 14th Dalai Lama can also name an adult as his next incarnation. Doing so would have the advantage that the successor would not need to spend decades studying Buddhism and can be taken seriously as a leader by the Tibetan diaspora immediately.^[42]

• The Discourse of Lama
• Central Tibetan Administration
• History of Tibet
• Tibet Autonomous Region
• Tibetan Buddhism
• Tibet Policy and Support Act

• Goldstein, Melvyn C. (18 June 1991). A History of Modern Tibet, 1913-1951: The Demise of the Lamaist State. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0-520-91176-5.