Langbahn Team – Weltmeisterschaft

Opinion polling for the 2018 Pakistani general election

General elections were held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018. Since the previous general election, several pollsters conducted opinion polls at both the national and provincial levels.

Graphical summaries

Each coloured line specifies a political party and how strong their voting intention is nationwide for the National Assembly, based on a 3 point moving average. Parties which poll below 10% are not shown.
  Pakistan Muslim League (N)
  Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
  Pakistan Peoples Party

Nationwide voting intention

Voting intention polls conducted since 2013 for the National Assembly.

Date Pollster Publisher Sample PML-N PTI PPP MQM-P MMA* ANP Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 ECP 53,123,733 24.35% 31.82% 13.01% 1.38% 4.81% 1.53% 22.98% 7.47%
12 Jul 2018 SDPI[1] Herald 6,004 25% 29% 20% — 3% 1% 20% 4%
04 Jul 2018 IPOR[2] GSP 3,735 32% 29% 13% 2% 3% 1% 20% 3%
06 Jun 2018 Gallup Pakistan[3] Geo/Jang 3,000 26% 25% 16% — 2% 1% 30% 1%
28 May 2018 Pulse Consultant[3] 3,163 27% 30% 17% 1% 4% 1% 20% 3%
May 2018 Gallup Pakistan[4] Self 3,000 38% 25% 15% 22% 13%
Mar 2018 Gallup Pakistan[5] WSJ 2,000 36% 24% 17% 23% 12%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] Geo/Jang 3,000 34% 26% 15% 2% 2% 2% 19% 8%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] 3,243 36% 23% 15% 2% 1% 1% 22% 13%
24 Oct 2017 IPOR[7][8] GSP 4,540 38% 27% 17% 3% 1% 1% 14% 11%
24 Apr 2017 Gallup Pakistan[9] Self 1,400 36% 25% 16% 2% 3% 2% 16% 11%
38% 22% 17% 2% 2% 2% 14% 16%
27 Aug 2015 SDPI[10][11] 3,014 27% 33% 14% 1% 2% 1% 20% 6%
17 Jul 2014 SDPI[12] Herald 1,354 17% 33% 19% 5% 3% 3% 18% 14%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] ECP 45,388,404 32.77% 16.92% 15.23% 5.41% 3.22% 1.00% 25.57% 15.85%

*Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal is an alliance of Islamist political parties, formed in 2002 and dissolved after the 2008 elections. The restoration of this alliance occurred in December 2017. Polls conducted before the restoration show the sum for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), the major political party in this alliance.

Province-wide voting intention

Voting intention polls conducted for each of the provinces. If a party has N/A listed in the poll, this indicates it is in the 'Others' section of the poll. If a certain poll result is bolded, this indicates that the option has achieved over 50% of the vote.

Punjab

Date Pollster Legislature type PML (N) PTI PPP Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 31.8% 33.7% 5.4% 29.1% 1.9%
12 Jul 2018 SDPI[1] unspecified 40% 33% 7% 20% 7%
04 Jul 2018 IPOR[2] National 50% 31% 5% 14% 19%
06 Jun 2018 Gallup Pakistan[3] unspecified 40% 26% 6% 28% 14%
02 Jun 2018 IPOR[14] unspecified 51% 30% 5% 14% 21%
28 May 2018 Pulse Consultant[3] unspecified 43% 34% 5% 18% 9%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] unspecified 50% 31% 5% 14% 19%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] unspecified 55% 20% 7% 18% 35%
24 Oct 2017 IPOR[8] National 58% 23% 6% 13% 35%
27 Aug 2015 SDPI[10][11] National 38% 35% 7% 20% 3%
17 Jul 2014 SDPI[12] Provincial 25% 43% 11% 21% 18%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] Provincial 40.8% 17.8% 8.8% 32.6% 23.0%

Sindh

Date Pollster Legislature type PPP MQM (P) GDA* PTI PML (N) Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 38.4% 7.7% 14.9% 14.2% 2.4% 22.4% 23.5%
12 Jul 2018 SDPI[1] unspecified 54% 2% 10% 14% 4% 16% 40%
04 Jul 2018 IPOR[2] National 35% 7% 5% 18% 10% 25% 17%
06 Jun 2018 Gallup Pakistan[3] unspecified 44% — 9% 4% 43% 35%
28 May 2018 Pulse Consultant[3] unspecified 45% 5% — 11% 4% 35% 34%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] unspecified 44% 10% — 11% 35% 33%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] unspecified 46% 7% — 10% — 37% 36%
24 Oct 2017 IPOR[8] National 52% 11% 2% 14% 12% 7% 38%
27 Aug 2015 SDPI[10][11] National 41% 5% — 21% 13% 20% 20%
17 July 2014 SDPI[12] Provincial 50% 20% 5% 25% 30%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] Provincial 32.6% 25.5% 11.6% 6.2% 6.0% 18.1% 7.1%

*The “Grand Democratic Alliance” is an alliance of political parties which was formed in late 2017. Polls before this show the sum for PML-F, the major party in this alliance before its formation

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Date Pollster Legislature type PTI PML (N) MMA ANP Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 32.3% 9.9% 17.1% 12.2% 28.5% 15.2%
12 Jul 2018 SDPI[1] unspecified 43% 10% 11% 6% 30% 31%
04 Jul 2018 IPOR[2] National 45% 12% 6% 8% 29% 33%
06 Jun 2018 Gallup Pakistan[3] unspecified 57% 9% 6% 6% 22% 48%
28 May 2018 Pulse Consultant[3] unspecified 57% 10% 9% 7% 17% 47%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] unspecified 47% 10% 43% 37%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] unspecified 53% 13% 34% 40%
24 Oct 2017 IPOR[8] National 62% 10% 1% 5% 22% 52%
27 Aug 2015 SDPI[10][11] National 50% 15% 7% 7% 21% 35%
17 Jul 2014 SDPI[12] Provincial 40% — 13% 12% 35% 27%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] Provincial 19.3% 15.9% 13.6% 10.3% 40.9% 3.4%

Balochistan

Date Pollster Legislature type MMA PMAP PML (N) BNP NP PPP ANP PTI BAP Other's Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 14.9% 1.5% 6.5% 7.0% 4.9% 3.1% 2.7% 6.0% 24.6% 28.8% 9.7%
12 Jul 2018 SDPI[1] unspecified 8% 4% 11% 6% — 15% — 11% 45% 4%
04 Jul 2018 IPOR[2] National 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 16% 4% 8% 7% 35% 4%
06 Jun 2018 Gallup Pakistan[3] unspecified 23% 9% 2% 14% 11% 20% 4% 5% 12% 3%
28 May 2018 Pulse Consultant[3] unspecified 11% 4% 2% 6% 5% 36% 3% 12% 7% 14% 24%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] unspecified 22% 18% 16% 13% 5% 7% 4% 5% — 10% 4%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] unspecified 5% 0% 39% 8% 0% 5% 7% 21% 15% 18%
24 Oct 2017 IPOR[8] National — 6% 15% 8% 1% 9% 2% 33% 26% 18%
27 Aug 2015 SDPI[10][11] National 18% — 5% — 10% 12% 4% 51% 6%
17 July 2014 SDPI[12] Provincial — 23% 22% — 14% 41% 1%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] Provincial 15.8% 12.8% 10.3% 6.2% 5.8% 4.0% 2.4% 1.8% — 40.9% 3.0%

Constituency-wide voting intention

Colour key

  † Exit Poll

  ‡ By election result

NA-28 (Peshawar-II)

Date Pollster Sample PTI PML (N) JI ANP PPP Others Lead
26 Oct 2017‡ By-election 2017 131,298 34.8% 18.9% 5.4% 18.9% 10.0% 12.1% 15.9%
26 Oct 2017† CPDI[15] 1,742 43% 16% 8% 20% 9% 6% 23%
19 Oct 2017 IPOR[16] 1,313 41% 18% 4% 9% 9% 19% 25%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] 138,555 39.8% 14.7% 11.9% 11.4% 8.7% 13.5% 25.1%

NA-63 (Rawalpindi-VII)

Date Pollster Sample PTI Ind (Ch.) PML (N) PPP Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 215,669 46.8% 30.5 10.7% 1.2% 10.8% 16.3%
28 Feb 2018 IPOR[17] 598 37% 41% 2% 20% 4%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] 236,624 46.6% 43.2% 6.3% 3.9% 3.4%

NA-125 (Lahore-III)

Date Pollster Sample PML (N) PTI Others Lead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 250,254 48.9% 42.3% 8.8% 7.6%
17 September 2017‡ By-election 2017 125,129 49.4% 37.6% 13.0% 11.8%
17 September 2017† CPDI[18] 1,433 46% 40% 14% 6%
12 September 2017 Pulse Consultant[19] 1,520 62% 23% 15% 39%
10 September 2017 Gallup Pakistan[20] 1,500 53% 29% 18% 24%
06 September 2017 IPOR[21] 2,198 49% 34% 17% 15%
11 May 2013 Election 2013[13] 153,328 60.5% 34.6% 4.9% 25.9%

Polling on Politicians

Polling on the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif from office

Date Pollster Sample Agree
(Right) 		Disagree
(Wrong) 		Don’t Know Lead
05 April 2018 Gallup Pakistan[22] 1,586 53% 40% 7% 13%
01 Nov 2017 Gallup Pakistan[6] 3,000 55% 33% 11% 22%
54% 31% 15% 23%
25 Oct 2017 Pulse Consultant[6] 3,243 48% 31% 21% 17%
47% 28% 25% 19%
24 Oct 2017 GSP[8] 4,540 65% 33% 2% 32%
69% 28% 3% 39%
28 July 2017 Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from office by the Supreme Court

Nawaz Sharif vs Imran Khan

Date Pollster Nawaz Sharif Imran Khan Don’t Know Lead
May 2018 Gallup Pakistan[4] 50% 45% 5% 5%
March 2018 Gallup Pakistan[5] 49% 46% 5% 3%
(undefined) 2017 Gallup Pakistan[5] 51% 39% 10% 12%
(undefined) 2016 Gallup Pakistan[5] 57% 37% 6% 20%
(undefined) 2015 Gallup Pakistan[5] 59% 35% 6% 24%

References

  1. ^ a b c d e "Survey shows elections too close to call".
  2. ^ a b c d e "National Survey of Current Political Survey in Pakistan" (PDF).
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Elections Exclusive: 3 poll results in! Who will you vote for Pakistan?". geo.tv.
  4. ^ a b "Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan talks about the changing trends in public opinion and motivations of the voters with respect to the upcoming Election on Jirga with SaleemKhanSafi on Geo News". Gallup Pakistan. 21 May 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d e Shah, Saeed (25 April 2018). "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy". [www.wsj.com].
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Elahi, Manzar; Haider, Sajjad (24 November 2017). "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey". Geo TV.
  7. ^ "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey". Dunya News. 28 October 2017.
  8. ^ a b c d e f "National Public Opinion Survey". Global Strategic Partners. 24 October 2017.
  9. ^ "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement". Gallup Pakistan. 24 April 2017.
  10. ^ a b c d e Suleri, Abid Q (2015). "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF). Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
  11. ^ a b c d e Sheikh, Ismail (28 October 2015). "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey". The Express Tribune. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
  12. ^ a b c d e "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power". Dawn. Retrieved 29 March 2018.
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF). Government of Pakistan. 27 May 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2017.
  14. ^ "A Quantative Study Report on the Political Continuum of Punjab" (PDF). ipor.com.pk.[dead link‍]
  15. ^ "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 26 October 2017.
  16. ^ "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 25 October 2017.
  17. ^ "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 1 March 2018.
  18. ^ "Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN NA-120 (Lahore III)". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 17 September 2017.
  19. ^ "Survey shows easy sailing for PML-N in NA-120 by-polls". The News PK. 12 September 2017.
  20. ^ "NA-120 Pre-election Survey by Gallup Pakistan" (PDF). Gallup Pakistan. 17 September 2017.
  21. ^ "71pc won't change their voting behaviour in NA-120: survey". The News PK. 6 September 2017.
  22. ^ "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF). 5 April 2018.
Quelle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2018_Pakistani_general_election