Next Madeiran regional election

← 2024 On or before October 2028[a]
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
JPP Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo Élvio Sousa Party PSD PS JPP Leader since 10 January 2015 2 December 2023 27 January 2015 Last election 19 seats, 36.1% 11 seats, 21.3% 9 seats, 16.9% Seats needed 5 13 15   Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues Gonçalo Maia Camelo Party CH CDS–PP IL Leader since 2022 14 April 2024 27 July 2024 Last election 4 seats, 9.2% 2 seats, 4.0% 1 seats, 2.6% Seats needed 20 22 23   Leader Mónica Freitas Party PAN Leader since 11 August 2023 Last election 1 seats, 1.9% Seats needed 23
Incumbent President Miguel Albuquerque PSD

The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before October 2028, the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

The incumbent president since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

Following the collapse of the Albuquerque government due to the approval of a motion of no confidence, an election is expected to be held during the first quarter of 2025, the third regional election in one year and a half.^[1]

In the 2024 election, albeit being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1 percent of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats.^[2]

The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3 percent of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9 percent of the votes.^[3] After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority.^[4]

Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government.^[5] Albuquerque was appointed as president and had to face a vote of confidence in the regional parliament.^[6]

Albuquerque presented his government programme to the speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document.^[7] However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they would vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government.^[8] Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote.^[9] After negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a new government programme that was to be voted on 4 July, but which had no certainties of passing at the moment it was presented.^[10] On 4 July 2024, Albuquerque's government passed in the regional assembly, with 22 votes in favour, from PSD, CDS–PP and PAN, 21 votes against, from PS, JPP and Chega member Magna Costa, and four abstentions by IL and the three members from Chega.^[11]

On 6 November 2024, Chega presented a motion of no confidence to bring down Miguel Albuquerque,^[12] citting the continued accusations, and investigations, of corruption against several regional secretaries and Albuquerque himself.^[13] At the same time, the Chega motion also criticized the Socialist Party (PS) for being an "accomplice" of the Social Democrats bad government,^[14] and this accusation generated divisions within the PS on what should be the party's position, with members divided between the vote in favour or abstain.^[15][16][17] However, shortly after, Chega said it was open to drop the criticisms towards the PS, and then the PS signaled it would vote in favour of the motion,^[18][19] which was later officially confirmed.^[20] The motion was expected to be voted on 18 November, but a PSD request to delay the vote was approved and the motion was then rescheduled for 17 December 2024.^[21] On 9 December, the proposed budget for 2025 was rejected on the first reading with the votes of all Opposition parties and the approval of only PSD and CDS–PP.^[22] On 17 December, the motion of no confidence was approved with the votes of all Opposition parties and the sole rejection of PSD and CDS–PP, thus causing the regional government to fall.^[23]

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member,^[24][25] and a leadership ballot was called for 27 July 2024. Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership.^[26] A second candidate, Gonçalo Maia Camelo, also announced his intention to run for the leadership.^[27] However, just days before the ballot, Duarte Gouveia withdrew from the race citing "lack of conditions" to campaign for the leadership.^[28] Gonçalo Maia Camelo became the sole candidate and was elected, in a closed party meeting, as new regional leader on 27 July.^[29]

The vote to decide the leadership of the Chega-Madeira party was held on September 22, 2024.^[30] There were three candidates on the ballot: Current regional leader Miguel Castro; regional assembly member Magna Costa and Câmara de Lobos local assembly member José Fernandes.^[30] The ballot was quite secretive, with the media being barred from covering it,^[31] and Miguel Castro was re-elected as leader with 39 percent, followed by José Fernandes with 31 percent and Magna Costa with 28 percent.^[32] The results were the following:

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.^[33]

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											O	Lead
Intercampus[b]	29 Nov–7 Dec 2024	803	?	38.7 20	4.3 2	21.2 11	15.2 7	7.1 3	4.3 2	2.1 1	—	2.2 1	1.7 0	3.3 0	17.5
Aximage[c]	30 Nov–6 Dec 2024	458	?	37.4 19	3.2 1	19.2 10	18.3 9	11.3 5	4.0 2	2.6 1	—	—	—	3.9 0	18.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	41.6	42.7 (23)		26.0 (14)	—	9.1 (4)	5.4 (2)	1.9 (1)	1.9 (1)	2.9 (1)	1.6 (0)	8.5 (1)	16.7
2024 regional election	26 May 2024	—	53.4	36.1 19	4.0 2	21.3 11	16.9 9	9.2 4	2.6 1	1.9 1	1.6 0	1.4 0	0.9 0	4.1 0	14.8

• Election results
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições