Iowa State Fair Straw Poll
The Iowa State Fair Straw Poll[a] is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by the Iowa Secretary of State with results posted to their website.[1][2] It was begun in 2015 after the Republican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its official Iowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate.[3]
2015 Results
In 2015, the State Fair poll found Donald Trump to be the most favored GOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeating Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On the Democratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total, Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeating Bernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent.[4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent.[5]
Democratic
Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[6]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Hillary Clinton | 1 | 1,338 | 49.19% | 1 | 49.84% | -- | -0.65% |
| Bernie Sanders | 2 | 1,217 | 44.17% | 2 | 49.59% | -- | +5.42% |
| Martin O'Malley | 3 | 127 | 4.67% | 3 | 0.54% | -- | -4.13% |
| Lincoln Chafee | 4 | 20 | 0.74% | Withdrawn | |||
| Jim Webb | 5 | 18 | 0.66% | Withdrawn | |||
Republican
Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[7]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,830 | 29.91% | 2 | 45,427 | 24.30% | -1 | -5.61% |
| Ben Carson | 2 | 1,185 | 19.37% | 4 | 17,395 | 9.30% | -2 | -10.07% |
| Ted Cruz | 3 | 543 | 8.88% | 1 | 43,165 | 27.64% | +2 | +14.24% |
| Carly Fiorina | 4 | 459 | 7.50% | 7 | 3,485 | 1.86% | -3 | -5.64% |
| Marco Rubio | 5 | 370 | 6.05% | 3 | 43,165 | 23.12% | +2 | +17.07% |
| Scott Walker | 6 | 324 | 5.30% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jeb Bush | 7 | 312 | 5.10% | 6 | 5,238 | 2.80% | +1 | -2.30% |
| Bobby Jindal | 8 | 225 | 3.68% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Mike Huckabee | 9 | 188 | 3.07% | 9 | 3,345 | 1.79% | -- | -1.28% |
| Rand Paul | 10 | 182 | 2.97% | 5 | 8,481 | 4.54% | +5 | +1.57% |
| John Kasich | 11 | 160 | 2.62% | 8 | 3,474 | 1.86% | +3 | -0.76% |
| Rick Perry | 12 | 137 | 2.24% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Chris Christie | 13 | 66 | 1.08% | 10 | 3,284 | 1.76% | +3 | -0.68% |
| Rick Santorum | 14 | 65 | 1.06% | 11 | 1,783 | 0.95% | +3 | -0.11% |
| Lindsey Graham | 15 | 39 | 0.64% | Withdrawn | ||||
| George Pataki | 16 | 24 | 0.39% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Mark Everson | 17 | 8 | 0.13% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jim Gilmore | 18 | 1 | 0.02% | 12 | 12 | 0.01% | +6 | -0.01% |
2019 Results
In 2019, the State Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast.[2][8]
Democratic
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Joe Biden | 1 | 374 | 17.7% | 4 | 26,291 | 14.9% | -3 | -2.8% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 2 | 364 | 17.2% | 3 | 32,589 | 18.5% | -1 | +1.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3 | 292 | 13.8% | 2 | 37,572 | 21.3% | +1 | +7.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 4 | 215 | 10.2% | 1 | 43,581 | 24.7% | +3 | +14.5% |
| Kamala Harris | 5 | 178 | 8.4% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Cory Booker | 6 | 129 | 6.1% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Tulsi Gabbard | 7 | 101 | 4.8% | 9 | 341 | 0.2% | -2 | -4.6% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 8 | 73 | 3.5% | 5 | 22,454 | 12.7% | +3 | +9.2% |
| Tom Steyer | 9 | 60 | 2.8% | 7 | 3,061 | 1.7% | +2 | -1.1% |
| Andrew Yang | 10 | 58 | 2.7% | 6 | 8,914 | 5.1% | +3 | +2.4% |
| Beto O'Rourke | 11 | 46 | 2.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Marianne Williamson | 12 | 33 | 1.6% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Steve Bullock | 13 | 33 | 1.6% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Julian Castro | 14 | 32 | 1.5% | Withdrawn | ||||
| John Delaney | 15 | 26 | 1.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 16 | 22 | 1.0% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Michael Bennet | 17 | 19 | 0.9% | 10 | 164 | 1.0% | +7 | -0.1% |
| Bill de Blasio | 18 | 18 | 0.9% | Withdrawn | ||||
| John Hickenlooper | 19 | 14 | 0.7% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jay Inslee | 20 | 11 | 0.5% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Tim Ryan | 21 | 7 | 0.3% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Seth Moulton | 22 | 5 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Joe Sestak | 23 | 4 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Wayne Messam | 24 | 4 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
Republican
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,902 | 96.26% | 1 | 31,421 | 97.14% | -- | -0.88% |
| Bill Weld | 2 | 74 | 3.74% | 2 | 425 | 1.31% | -- | -2.43% |
2023 Results
Democratic
Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | |
| Joe Biden | 1 | 732 | 66.97% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 2 | 205 | 18.76% |
| Marianne Williamson | 3 | 156 | 14.27% |
Republican
Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,501 | 42.47% | 1 | 56,260 | 51.01% | -- | +8.54% |
| Ron DeSantis | 2 | 541 | 15.31% | 2 | 23,420 | 21.23% | -- | +5.92% |
| Tim Scott | 3 | 392 | 11.09% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4 | 331 | 9.37% | 4 | 8,449 | 7.66% | -- | -1.71% |
| Perry Johnson | 5 | 220 | 6.23% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Nikki Haley | 6 | 133 | 3.76% | 3 | 21,085 | 19.12% | +3 | +15.36% |
| Asa Hutchinson | 7 | 120 | 3.40% | 6 | 191 | 0.17% | +1 | -3.23% |
| Mike Pence | 8 | 97 | 2.74% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Doug Burgum | 9 | 96 | 2.72% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Will Hurd | 10 | 37 | 1.05% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Ryan Binkley | 11 | 27 | 0.76% | 5 | 774 | 0.70% | +6 | -0.06% |
| Francis Suarez | 12 | 23 | 0.65% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Larry Elder | 13 | 16 | 0.45% | Withdrawn | ||||
Libertarian
Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | |
| Chase Oliver | 1 (tied) | 27 | 18.88% |
| Raymond Dude Wagner | 1 (tied) | 27 | 18.88% |
| Aaron Avouris | 3 (tied) | 11 | 7.69% |
| Melissa Biondi | 3 (tied) | 11 | 7.69% |
| Hugo Valdez Garcia | 5 | 10 | 6.99% |
| David Reed DeSilva | 6 (tied) | 8 | 5.59% |
| Jon Stewart | 6 (tied) | 8 | 5.59% |
| David Dunlap | 8 (tied) | 6 | 4.20% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 8 (tied) | 6 | 4.20% |
| Kevin Babicz | 10 (tied) | 5 | 3.50% |
| Charles Griffith Ferry | 10 (tied) | 5 | 3.50% |
| Antonio Gagnon | 12 (tied) | 4 | 2.80% |
| Mike ter Maat | 12 (tied) | 4 | 2.80% |
| Russell DeLeon | 14 (tied) | 3 | 2.10% |
| Lars Mapstead | 14 (tied) | 3 | 2.10% |
| Joshua Rodriguez | 16 (tied) | 2 | 1.40% |
| Nathan J. Vaught Jr. | 16 (tied) | 2 | 1.40% |
| Seymour Art Lee | 18 | 1 | 0.70% |
| Beau Lindsey | 19 (tied) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Kevin Tucker | 19 (tied) | 0 | 0.00% |
Notes
- ^ Also referred to as the Iowa Straw Poll, though that more properly is the name for the poll conducted from 1979–2011 by the Iowa State Republican Party.
References
- ^ "On the Stump: The Polls are coming! The Polls are coming!". Toledo Chronicle, Tama News-Herald. August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
- ^ a b Pate, Paul (August 19, 2019). "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
- ^ "It's over: the end of the Iowa Straw Poll". NBC News. June 12, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
- ^ Richardson, Bradford (August 17, 2015). "Iowa State Fair attendees pick Sanders over Clinton". www.thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
- ^ "Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
- ^ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
- ^ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
- ^ "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll results". Siouxland News. August 19, 2019.
- ^ a b c "2023 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 15, 2023.