2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 32.2%[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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    Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.[3]
The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008[7] and was sworn in on September 13.[8]
The results were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]
By contrast, some scholars criticized the instant-runoff procedure for its pathological behavior,[11][12] the result of a center squeeze.[12][13][14] Although Mary Peltola received a plurality of first choice votes and won in the final round, a majority of voters ranked her last or left her off their ballot entirely.[12] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola.[12][15][16] However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat.[12][17]
The election also exhibited nonmonotonic behavior,[17] where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect.[17][18] In this race, Begich lost as a result of at least 5,200 ballots with the ranking order Palin, Begich, Peltola; had those voters simply not participated at all, Begich would have beaten Peltola, a preferred outcome.[17][12] Similarly, had these Palin voters ranked Peltola first, Peltola would have lost to Begich, the same preferred outcome.[17][19]
In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV,[10] leading some observers to compare it to the 2009 Burlington mayoral election, where similar pathologies resulted in a 2010 initiative repealing the system.[20][21][22] Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt an alternative rule without this behavior.[11]
Nonpartisan blanket primary
John Howe
Jeff Lowenfels
J. R. Myers
Candidates
Advanced to general election
- Nick Begich III (Republican), Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich Sr., nephew of former U.S. Senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich[23][24][25]
- Sarah Palin (Republican), former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008[23][25][26]
- Mary Peltola (Democratic), former state representative (1999–2009) and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission[23][25][27]
Withdrew after advancing to general election
- Al Gross (independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross. He was endorsed by the Democratic Party as nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[23][25][28] (After placing third, he withdrew and endorsed Peltola)[29]
Eliminated in primary
- Dennis Aguayo (independent)[23]
- Jay R. Armstrong (Republican), gold miner[23]
- Brian Beal (independent)[23]
- Tim Beck (independent), former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member (1998–2004, 2005–2011), candidate for FNSB mayor (2000) and Alaska Senate (2006)[23]
- Gregg Brelsford (independent), lawyer and former manager of Bristol Bay Borough (2018–2020)[23][30]
- Robert Brown (independent), veteran[23]
- Chris Bye (Libertarian), fishing guide[23]
- John Callahan (Republican), public affairs officer for the Alaska Air National Guard[23][31]
- Arlene Carl (independent), retiree[23]
- Santa Claus (independent), North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, since 2019) and mayor pro tem[23][32] (endorsed Peltola)[33]
- John Coghill (Republican), former majority leader of the Alaskan State Senate (2013–2017), former state senator (2009–2021), former majority leader of the Alaskan House of Representatives (2002–2006), former state representative (1999–2009), son of former lieutenant governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran[23][34]
- Christopher Constant (Democratic), Anchorage Assembly member since 2017[23][24]
- Lady Donna Dutchess (independent), judicial reform activist[23]
- Otto Florschutz (Republican), former Wrangell Port Commissioner[23]
- Laurel Foster (independent), paralegal[23]
- Tom Gibbons (Republican), business manager[23]
- Karyn Griffin (independent), political organizer and activist[23][35]
- Andrew Halcro (independent), former Republican state representative (1998–2003) and Independent candidate for governor of Alaska in 2006[23][36][32]
- Ted Heintz (independent), Corporate Contract Services Professional[23]
- William Hibler III (independent), former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016 and 2020[23]
- John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party), machinist and Alaskan Independence Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[23]
- David Hughes (independent), program manager[23]
- Don Knight (independent)[23]
- Jeff Lowenfels (independent), attorney and gardening writer[23][36]
- Robert "Bob" Lyons (Republican), case manager[23][37]
- Anne McCabe (independent), former president of the Kenai Peninsula Educational Support Association[23][35]
- Mikel Melander, blue collar worker[23]
- Sherry Mettler (independent), businesswoman[23]
- Mike Milligan (Democratic), former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green Party nominee for U.S. House (1992) and lieutenant governor (1998)[23]
- J. R. Myers (Libertarian), behavioral health clinician, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014[23]
- Emil Notti (Democratic), engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973[23][38]
- Robert Ornelas (American Independent Party), perennial candidate[23]
- Silvio Pellegrini (independent), cyber security manager, IT project manager, and intelligence analyst for the US Air Force Reserve[23][39]
- Josh Revak (Republican), state senator for District M (2019–present) and U.S. Army veteran[23][32]
- Maxwell Sumner (Republican), homebuilder[23][31]
- Tara Sweeney (Republican), former assistant secretary of the Interior for the Bureau of Indian Affairs (2018–2021)[23][36][26][40] (ran as write-in candidate in general election)[41]
- David Thistle (independent)[23]
- Ernest Thomas (Democratic)[23]
- Clayton Trotter (Republican), college professor[23]
- Bradley Welter (Republican)[23]
- Jason Williams (independent)[23]
- Joe Woodward (Republican)[23]
- Adam Wool (Democratic), state representative (2015–present)[23][32]
- Stephen Wright (Republican), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016, candidate for Alaska State Senate in 2020, and U.S. Air Force veteran[23][42]
Withdrawn
- Breck Craig (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[23]
- Richard Morris (independent)[23]
- Jesse Sumner (Republican), member of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly[23][31]
Declined
- Les Gara (Democratic), former state representative (2003–2019) (running for governor)[43]
- Mead Treadwell (Republican), former lieutenant governor of Alaska (endorsed Sweeney)[44]
Endorsements
Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
- Ben Carpenter, state representative (2019–present)
- John Coghill, former state senator (2009–2021) and former state representative
- Mia Costello, state senator (2015–present)
- Mike Cronk, state representative (2021–present)
- Lynn Gattis, former state representative (2013–2017)
- Ron Gillham, state representative (2021–present)
- Roger Holland, state senator (2021–present)
- Shelley Hughes, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2021–present), state senator (2017–present), and former state representative (2012–2017)
- Pete Kelly, former president of the Alaska Senate (2017–2019) and state senator (2013–2019; 1999–2003)
- Kevin McCabe, state representative (2021–present)
- Ken McCarty, state representative (2021–present)
- Tom McKay, state representative (2021–present)
- Charisse Millett, former Majority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) and state representative (2009–2019)
- Mike Prax, state representative (2020–present)
- George Rauscher, state representative (2017–present)
- Mike Shower, state senator (2018–present)
- Sarah Vance, state representative (2019–present)
Organizations
- Alaska Outdoor Council[45]
- Alaska Republican Party[46]
- Americans for Prosperity Alaska
- Anchorage Young Republicans
- Associated Builders and Contractors, Alaska Chapter
- FreedomWorks for America
Individuals
- Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[47]
Santa Claus (I)
State legislators
Christopher Constant (D)
U.S. senators
- Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)
State legislators
- Tom Begich, state senator (2017–present)
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator (2017–present)[48]
Local officials
- Austin Quinn-Davidson, acting Mayor of Anchorage (2020–2021) and member of the Anchorage Assembly (2018–present)
Al Gross (I)
State officials
- Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002) and former mayor of Anchorage (1982–1987)
- Fran Ulmer, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (1994–2002), former state representative (1987–1994), and former mayor of Juneau (1983–1985)
State legislators
- Hollis French, former state senator (2003–2015)
- Beth Kerttula, former House Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2007–2014) and state representative (2007–2014)
- Joe Paskvan, former state senator (2009–2013)
- Sally Smith, former mayor of Juneau (2000–2003) and former state representative (1977–1983)
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[49]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[50]
U.S. federal legislators
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative, New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and House Republican Conference Chair (2021–present)[51]
Individuals
- Dan Bongino, conservative political commentator
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality, ex-wife of Gavin Newsom, fiance of Donald Trump Jr., and former advisor to former president Donald Trump
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
Individuals
- Alyse Galvin, Independent candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional seat in 2018 and 2020
Josh Revak (R)
Individuals
- Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[53]
Tara Sweeney (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and former United States Coast Guard admiral[citation needed]
State officials
- Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (2010–2014)[citation needed]
Organizations
- ANCSA Regional Association[54]
Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
| Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
| 1[55] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube[56] | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[57] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[58] | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
| Independent | Al Gross[b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
| Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
| Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
| Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
| Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
| Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
| Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
| Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
| Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
| Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
| Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
| Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
| Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
| Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
| Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
| Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
| Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
| Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
| American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
| Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
| Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
| Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
| Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[40]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[60] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[61] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Endorsements
Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
- Ben Carpenter, state representative (2019–present)
- Mia Costello, state senator (2015–present)
- Mike Cronk, state representative (2021–present)
- Lynn Gattis, former state representative (2013–2017)
- Ron Gillham, state representative (2021–present)
- Roger Holland, state senator (2021–present)
- Shelley Hughes, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2021–present), state senator (2017–present), and former state representative (2012–2017)
- DeLena Johnson, state representative
- Pete Kelly, former president of the Alaska Senate (2017–2019) and state senator (2013–2019; 1999–2003)
- Kevin McCabe, state representative (2021–present)
- Ken McCarty, state representative (2021–present)
- Tom McKay, state representative (2021–present)
- Charisse Millett, former Majority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) and state representative (2009–2019)
- Rob Myers Jr., state senator (2021–present)
- Mike Prax, state representative (2020–present)
- George Rauscher, state representative (2017–present)
- Mike Shower, state senator (2018–present)
- Steve Thompson, state representative (2011–present)
- Cathy Tilton, state representative (2015–present)
- Sarah Vance, state representative (2019–present)
Local officials
- Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member
Organizations'
- Alaska Outdoor Council[45]
- Alaska Republican Party
- Americans for Prosperity Alaska
- BIPAC
- FreedomWorks for America
Individuals
- Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[49]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[50]
U.S. federal legislators
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)[63]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative, New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and House Republican Conference Chair (2021–present)[51]
Individuals
- Dan Bongino, conservative political commentator
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality and former advisor to former president Donald Trump
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. federal legislators
- Mark Begich, former U.S. senator (2009–2015), former mayor of Anchorage (2003–2009), and uncle of Nick Begich III
State officials
- Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002)
- Fran Ulmer, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (1994–2002)
State legislators
- Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
- Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
- Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)
Local officials
- Santa Claus, North Pole city councilor (2015–2018, 2019–present) and current mayor pro tem (Independent)[33][65]
- Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member[66]
- Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage Assembly member
- Mike Navarre, former mayor of Kenai Peninsula Borough (2011–2017) and former state representative (1985–1996)
Individuals
- Alyse Galvin, nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (Independent)
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (Independent)[29]
- Emil Notti, Alaska Native activist and nominee for 1973 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election[67]
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
- Organized Village of Kwethluk
- Orutsararmiut Native Council
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[69] | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
| 2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
| 2*[c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[70] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
| 2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
| 2*[71][c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[72] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
| 2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[73] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
| 3*[74][d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[75] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[76] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
| 2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
| 3 | 55% | 45% | – | ||||||||
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[77][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
| 2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
| 3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[77][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[77][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.48% | ||
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.52% | ||
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
| Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
| Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||||||||
First round results by state house district | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pairwise comparison
| Begich | Peltola | Palin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Begich | - | 88,126 | 101,438 |
| Peltola | 79,486 | - | 91,375 |
| Palin | 63,666 | 86,197 | - |
The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner (majority-preferred winner) while Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler:[80][81][82][83]
| Winner | Loser | Winner | Loser | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Begich | vs. | Peltola | 52.6% | vs. 47.4% |
| Begich | vs. | Palin | 61.4% | vs. 38.6% |
| Peltola | vs. | Palin | 51.5% | vs. 48.5% |
See also
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 United States elections
- 117th United States Congress
- List of special elections to the United States House of Representatives
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
- ^ a b Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ^ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ^ a b Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
- ^ Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross
References
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
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However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred to each of the more extreme candidates by a majority of voters. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
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It's a good thing for Peltola that she didn't attract more Palin voters—she'd have lost. The strangeness continues. Peltola could have actually gotten more 1st choice votes in this election and caused herself to lose. How's that? Let's look. [...] Imagine if Peltola reached across the aisle and spoke directly to Palin voters. Imagine that she empathized with their position and identified issues they cared about that Palin and even Begich ignored. And let's say that as a consequence, Peltola got the first-choice votes of between 5,200 and 8,500 voters who would have otherwise ranked only Palin. What happens as a result? Palin would have gotten eliminated in the first round and Peltola would still not be able to beat Begich.
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "MARY PELTOLA FOR U.S. CONGRESS "As a Native woman, I understand that Alaskans are a diverse people who need leaders who can unite us. We also need a federal government that helps stabilize our economy. My top priority is to improve Alaskans quality of life." Mary Peltola". July 31, 2022. Archived from the original on July 31, 2022. Retrieved August 2, 2022.
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola". June 17, 2022. Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
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and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
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Hence Begich was the Condorcet winner. … spoiler and Condorcet loser, Palin
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