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Talk:2010–11 Australian region cyclone season



Season Summary

ID Date (ACST) TC Name TCWC Original Basin Source
01U 2010-10-28 Anggrek P/J Indian Ocean TCR
02U 2010-12-04 Abele *R/P Indian Ocean BT Database
03U 2010-12-15 - P Indian Ocean BT Database
04U 2010-12-22 - P Indian Ocean
05U 2010-12-24 Tasha B Coral Sea BT Database
06U 2010-12-30 - P Indian Ocean BT Database
07U
08U
09U 2011-01-11 Vince P Indian Ocean BT Database
10U 2011-01-13 Zelia B Coral Sea BT Database
11U 2011-01-23 Anthony B Coral Sea BT Database
12U 2011-01-23 Bianca D/P Indian Ocean BT Database
13U 2011-01-31 - P Indian Ocean Tech Bull
14U 2011-01-31 Yasi *F/B Coral Sea BT Database
15U 2011-02-11 - P Indian Ocean Tech Bull
16U 2011-02-15 Dianne P Indian Ocean BT Database
17U 2011-02-15 Carlos D/P NW, W Australia BT Database
18U 2011-02-25 - P W Australia Tech Bull
19U 2011-02-26 - D G.O.C Tech Bull
20U 2011-03-01 - D N Australia Tech Bull
21U 2011-03-07 *12F B Coral Sea Adv
22U 2011-03-11 - D/P NW Australia TWO
23U 2011-03-11 *Cherono P Indian Ocean *same ref 22U ^
24U 2011-03-22 *Bune N/W *SPac SAB
25U 2011-03-29 - D/P NW Australia TCR
26U 2011-03-30 - P Indian Ocean Tech Bull
27U 2011-03-30 - *R/P Indian Ocean *same ref 26U ^
28U 2011-04-15 - B Coral Sea Analysis
29U 2011-04-14 Errol D/P Arafura BT Database

Location Of Advisories

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook Jakarta \\ Perth \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone High Seas Warning Jakarta \\ Perth 1 \\ Perth 2 \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Perth 1 \\ Perth 2 \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Main Pages Jakarta \\ BoM \\ JTWC
ABIO10 STWA \\ ABPW10 STWA
JTWC 1 \\ JTWC 2 \\ JTWC 3
Running Best track

AORs

The TCWC AORs have/are changing according to page 91 of this report RA V have accepted the changes. According this separate report, The new AORs are

Darwin TCWC 15S 125E, 15S 129E, 32S 129E, 32S 138E, 14S 138E, 9S 141E, 9S 128E, 11S 128E, 11S 125E,
Perth TCWC 10S 090E, 36S 090E, 36S 129E, 15S 129E, 15S 125E, 11S 125E, 11S 120E, 10S 120E, 10S 090E
Port Moresby TCWC EQ 141E, 9S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E
Jakarta TCWC EQ 090E, 10S 090E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 128E, 09S 128E, 09S 141E, EQ 141E

I havent updated any articles yet as i am not sure whether these are coming in with immediate effect or not. I guess we will find out within the next couple of weeks.Jason Rees (talk) 19:28, 12 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Judging by Jakarta's advisories these have come in to force with immediate effect.Jason Rees (talk) 02:36, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Abele intensity

IMO the intensity in the infobox for Abele is given wrongly, probably due to messing up 10 min speeds and 3 sec gusts. I only could not figure out wether we should take the last MF Reunion advisory which already gives coordinates within the Australia AOR or should we stick on the first BoM advisory from Perth. According to the archived advisories Abeles intensity was:

Time 0000 UTC 03/12/2010 0735 UTC 03/12/2010 1240 UTC 03/12/2010 1847 UTC 03/12/2010 0122 UTC 04/12/2010
TCWC Reunion Perth Perth Perth Perth
10 min winds (kn) 50 45 40 40 30
3 sec gusts (kn) – 65 55 50 45
pressure (hPa) 987 990 992 997 1000

I am inclined to take the last RSMC Reunion intensity since the storm was already east of 90° E, what is in the Australian region, so 50 kn and 98 hPa. --Matthiasb (talk) 18:56, 6 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Actually since it peaked at 89.5E (which is Aus region if we rounded to 0 D.P.) the peak windspeeds are not wrong. Alos i note in BOMs write up of the system they have called it an STC so we should at least follow them in calling it a [severe tropical cyclone].Jason Rees (talk) 19:52, 6 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Well, there is no rounding needed. 89.5 E is definitely west of 90 E, some 50 kilometres at that latitude, I guess. Note also what is written on the page you've linked: Abele moved into the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre’s area of responsibility on 3 December. By this time it was a category 2 cyclone having already begun rapid weakening due to cold sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear. That means it was not a severe tropical cyclone at the time it moved into the Perth TCWC's aor. However, this year the NHC already did some funny things, so why not also the guys and lads at the BoM downunder. :-) --Matthiasb (talk) 19:14, 8 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Matthiasb is correct, Abele was not a STC when it entered the region. I'm changing the intensity to 50kts 987mb (per Reuinion just before crossing) Cyclonebiskit (talk) 19:34, 8 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

04U

Need date for when 04U dissipated for the editing of the timeline. Rosalina2427 (talk) 19:08, 28 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

December 24.Jason Rees (talk) 19:20, 28 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

CityUHK/ GCACIC predictions für the Australian region

Does anyone know where the figures are taken from? The official website seems to haven't been updated sind last July so it can be doubted if those figures in the article are correct. Any information? --Matthiasb (talk) 18:44, 7 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

here or here.Jason Rees (talk) 19:02, 7 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Thanx. --Matthiasb (talk) 21:13, 7 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Email from the BoM

I received an email from the BoM regarding the missing U's.


01U - Anggrek - Perth - 27/10/2010

02U - Abele - Perth - 29/11/2010

03U - N/A - Perth - 10/12/2010 (location system was identified: 12S; 107E)

04U - N/A - Perth - 22/12/2010 (location system was identified: 12S; 130E)

05U - Tasha - Brisbane - 24/12/2010

06U - N/A - Perth - 29/12/2010 (location system was identified: 15S; 125E)

07U - N/A - Perth - 29/12/2010 (location system was identified: 12S; 95E)

08U - N/A - Perth - 31/12/2010 (location system was identified: 12S; 109E)

09U - Vince - Perth - 10/01/2011

10U - Zelia - Brisbane - 13/01/2011

Still not sure if this is enough to update the article, so I'll leave it be and see if anyone else wants to. Cyclonica (talk) 13:03, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Its enough to update the article with.Jason Rees (talk) 16:13, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How do you plan on citing that? --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 16:14, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
To their TC DB unless your suddenly not allowed to cite databases.Jason Rees (talk) 16:18, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Actually it's a start to identify the systems in the TWOs and the gale warnings which might not be archived all. However, we can use as well their Monthly Weather Review once it will be published for December. --Matthiasb (talk) 16:38, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
To Jason Rees, if the only way we know about those cyclone numbers is through the email, than we can't put it in. That's all I'm saying. --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 16:42, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Well we could try to get that information verified by getting it emailed to the OTRS. --Matthiasb (talk) 17:00, 19 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah I had a feeling an email wouldn't be enough. Just have to wait to have it verified some other way. Another note: A Tropical Low near the NT/WA border has a Severe Weather Warning, it's likely this is already 11U, but again, must wait until a tech summary is issued. Cyclonica (talk) 16:33, 21 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

No, 11U was classified the low near Cairns, now TC Anthony. --Matthiasb (talk) 00:10, 23 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Well at least they're being consistant by being highly unpredictable with these designations. Hopefully the December reports verify 07U & 08U when they're released. Cyclonica (talk) 01:57, 23 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Actually their not holy unpredictable. A BoM forecaster has told me previously that the U numbers are assigned when they order additional guidance on them and really home in on the position of the low.Jason Rees (talk) 02:34, 24 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Now they're issuing advices referring to the Kimberley low as 12U. --Matthiasb (talk) 09:44, 24 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I have made some tentative identifications and recovered the track files: any comments?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 17:29, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

03U = 91S.INVEST[1] 

00005 12/14/2010 M= 7  0 SNBR=0000 91S         XING=0
00010 12/14L1701115  20 1007L1741111  20 1007L1771108  20 1007*1791103  25 1004*
00015 12/15*1821098  30 1000*1851095  30 1000*1891095  30 1000*1961097  30 1000*
00020 12/16*2011099  30 1000*2051100  25 1001*2101104  25 1004*2131107  25 1004*
00025 12/17*2161116  25 1004*2181125  25 1004*2221129  25 1004*2261131  25 1004*
00030 12/18*2281135  25 1004*2301139  25 1004*2361140  25 1004*2471137  25 1004*
00035 12/19*2531129  25 1004*2581124  25 1004*2661123  25 1004*2821115  25 1004*
00040 12/20*2901101  25 1004*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*
00045 TD

04U = 95S.INVEST[2][3]1 

00005 12/22/2010 M= 3  0 SNBR=0000 95S         XING=0
00010 12/22*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0L1181277  15 1010*
00015 12/23L1201270  15 1010L1211265  15 1010L1211257  15 1010L1221253  15 1010*
00020 12/24L1251247  15 1010*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*  0   0   0    0*
00025 TD

1 I read "101222 1200" in the second file as meaning "101223 1200"

07U = 97S.INVEST = Tropical Depression 03R = File:03R 2010 track.png

08U = 99S.INVEST[4] 

00005 12/30/2010 M= 4  0 SNBR=0000 99S         XING=0
00010 12/30L 971064  15 1010L1011071  15 1010L1061077  15 1010L1121084  15 1010*
00015 12/31L1191089  15 1010L1261094  20 1007*1311097  25 1004*1351099  25 1001*
00020 01/01*1391101  25 1001*1351090  25 1004*1281091  25 1004*1331103  25 1004*
00025 01/02*1401116  25 1002*1581132  25 1004*1831135  25 1004*2111127  25 1004*
00030 TD


The one for 03U can definitely be added, it's definitely that storm. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 03:09, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Anthony Confusion

There has been a lot of trouble with Tropical Cyclone Anthony. A break is required in the 'Timeline of recent events' image. Why? Because the system weakened into a low and we dont even know if it further weakened as the BoM stopped issuing advisories. In all other basins it happens like that. When a system weakens into a low, the RSMCs strom issuing advisories, if the continue their advisories after a couple of days, then we put a break in the template, (because the rsmc was not issuing any advisories). Some users today are ignoring the break as they think the system remained a low all the time. What should be done,

  • Should we keep a break in the template?
  • Should we simply put a full bar??

--Anirudh Emani (talk) 09:38, 29 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

They were issuing some type of advisorie as they mentioned "Ex-TC Anthony" on their website the whole time — Iune(talk) 10:42, 29 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Too much Vandalism

There has been persistent vandalism. Bianca section has been completely destroyed. Immediate action must be taken. --Anirudh Emani (talk) 05:03, 30 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

What??? - Biancas section looks ok to me.Jason Rees (talk) 05:24, 30 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Er yeah, I'm not following either. The only issue I see with Bianca's section are lines which treat the storm as a "currently active" threat (i.e. "it is expected" and such lines). They're easily fixed when the system completely dissipates. Where exactly is this so called vandalism? Cyclonica (talk) 08:56, 30 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Bianca was a cat 4 on SSHS --Anirudh Emani (talk) 10:44, 31 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah it was operationally but the JTWC have reassessed the winds to be off a high cat 2 strength.Jason Rees (talk) 13:40, 31 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Little flaw in Bianca section

The articles says:

Early on 21 January the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Darwin reported that a tropical low formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and gave it the identifier '12U'.

However in the given source ref we read:

The monsoon trough is currently located from northern Kimberley to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move north over the weekend. A weak tropical low, 1002 hPa is located over land near Kununurra. The low is expected to move slowly north and may intensify further.

It is not clear from that source (we will wait at least for the monthly weather review to find out) wether the low was associated with the monsoon trough but definitely it is not said that the low formed in the GoC, it is only said that early on 21 Jan it was located over land near Kununurra. I will change this tomorrow or the day after tomorrow if nobody will object or come up with a better source. --Matthiasb (talk) 23:54, 30 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You can rewrite it now if you want, but use the Preliminary TCR which states it formed over land near the Top End border.Jason Rees (talk) 00:04, 31 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

TWOS

Can we knab the last couple of days worth of TWOs from Perth and stick them on the SWIO page. I ask as i would be prepared to bet that 13U (The missing system) is the system mentioned within the TWO's.Jason Rees (talk) 13:43, 31 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'll hold them here until we decide whether they're needed: 2011-01-31 0600z 2011-02-01 0600z--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 14:38, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]
ya, that was the only thing I remember seeing in the TWO for what may have been 13U. - グリフオーザー (talk) 15:32, 1 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Yasi and the floods

Well this isn't a typical season with all the floods in SA, VIC and S NSW, it is looking like Anthony and Yasi assisted (with tropical moisture feeding into a trough). This is going to be rather complex to work out or how to work out what system caused the most influence but it is likely Anthony added moisture and Yasi maintained it, one it had moved down to S NT. This is only going by IR, VIS and WV images, so we may have to wait for a report(s) to be published by the BoM. Also over the weekend there was another flood related death for the year and the first for this event (in S Aus). Bidgee (talk) 02:26, 7 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The death was in Lockhart, New South Wales. Brudder Andrusha (talk)

Cleanup of 15U

Info about 15U has been deleted from these talk pages but this system has been inactive for a few days. Can someone cleanup the info on the main page as to when it finally becme inactive? Thx. Brudder Andrusha (talk)

It hasnt been inactivce for a couple of days. It was only dropped from Perths TWOs overnight (14-15 Feb). Also when advisories are removed from above they are archived within the monthly archives so we have it.Jason Rees (talk) 17:41, 15 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]
According to the archives Perth's last Technical Bulliten was 2011-02-12 0600z which indicated that that would be the last unless intensification. Does the Perths TWOs contain info that would suggest that it really did die Feb. 14 and not Feb 12 as per the Technical Bulliten? It just seemed that this system was inept. Brudder Andrusha (talk) 20:48, 15 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Yep - Perth issued the final Tech bull on Feb 12, but they kept issuing shipping warnings during the 13th on the TL and mentioned it on the 13th's TWO. Im ade a slight mistake in saying the 14th as it actually dissipated on the 13th wasnt mentioned on the 14ths two. Look above for the TWO's and the archives for the shipping (gale) warnings.Jason Rees (talk) 03:49, 16 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Article naming standardization

There is a discussion going on about the names of cyclone articles, whether it should be at the official name, or the more commonly used name. Please see Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Tropical cyclones#Article names. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 18:45, 22 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Timeline

Name Tropical Low 22U and 23U on the timeline and the season effects. And the season effects. And update everything. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 99.35.232.141 (talk • contribs) --Matthiasb (talk) 07:47, 2 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Still some confusion or What about the misssing Us

Just to inform more prominent than in the edit comment: I changed the 24U part in the point where it was said that it got extratropical north-west of NZL. From the track map it seems to be messed up with the north-east. Still that might need verification. Since that mixing up east and west did happen some weeks ago with another cyclone what I also caught up but don't remember I am wondering if an editor with maternal language French is the source of those mistakes, possibly messing up est and ouest vs. east and west.

Also, considering the more recent TWOs issued by Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane and the use of the U-identifier by Perth in its TWOs it seems very certain to me that the missing Us have appeared rather in the Brisbane AOR. Considering what they've done with 24U, I think it is well possible that the missing Us refer to some systems in the Nadi AOR of which Brisbane operationally thought at the time they might have an impact on the Australian region. --Matthiasb (talk) 07:54, 2 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I've said it before, I personally don't think we should be putting the U's in unless they're verified without a doubt, AKA there is an online source that backs it up. Not to mention, I'm thinking we should ask BoM whether a tropical low is indeed a tropical cyclone. If they don't consider it one, then we don't need to include it in our articles. --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 21:47, 2 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm also confused about the point that TCWC Brisbane numbered a low east of 180 as 24U. It seems that it is more likely to be referred as a low formed in Darwin AOR at around 19/3-21/3. Also, according to the previous cases, I think that the TCWCs are not likely to number any systems that are not mentioned in TWOs. Raymond765 (talk) 03:55, 3 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Hink, I would guess the BoM does so, otherwise their seasonal prediction would be much too way off from reality as so far we have 10 named storms what is still less than the number of 12 cyclones which according to BoM form in average and much less compared to the number of 20 to 22 cyclones they've predicted for this season. I don't think it is probably that yet 10 to 12 named storms will form in the several weeks the season will still last on. --Matthiasb (talk) 14:20, 3 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Errol

Errol hasn't really been updated recently. The last advisory was issued by BoM, and the UNISYS track map is here, but ours hasn't been updated yet. Not to be impatient, but could anyone update it to match the one I mentioned? Rye998 (talk) 15:28, 18 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How about having some patience? Its not even been a day since the last full blown advisory was released by TCWC Jakarta.Jason Rees (talk) 19:05, 18 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]
The http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/ has been down for several days—it is now back up but doesn't yet have the full best fit track for Errol. I will update the map when I can get the data.--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 17:43, 26 April 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Anggrek

The BoM's Excel Spreadsheet BT has recently downgraded Anggrek to a tropical low because gales never extended more than halfway around the system centre.Jason Rees (talk) 22:58, 1 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]

However, http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/wa/watc20101031.shtml still lists it as cat 2 cyclone. So what is correctly? --Matthiasb (talk) 21:02, 18 October 2012 (UTC)[reply]
The BT Folder - that report says it is based on preliminary data and im fairly sure aint gonna be updated.Jason Rees (talk) 21:37, 18 October 2012 (UTC)[reply]

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