Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election
In the run up to the Next Japanese general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 27 October 2024, to the present day.
Party identification
2025
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | Ishin | Komei | Reiwa | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | No party | Und./ no ans. |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–13 Jan | NHK | 1,211 | 30.5 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3[a] | 37.8 | 5.4 | 7.3 |
4–5 Jan | JNN | 1,018 | 26.2 | 8.2 | 11 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | – | 37.4 | 3.4 | 11.2 |
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | Ishin | Komei | Reiwa | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | No party | Und./ no ans. |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–22 Dec | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 774 | 32 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | – | 24 | 3 | 8 |
14–15 Dec | Senkyo.com/JX | 996 | 26.8 | 17.2 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.2[b] | 31.9 | – | 5.1 |
14–15 Dec | Asahi | 1,049 | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 11 |
14–15 Dec | Sankei/FNN | 1,020 | 28.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | – | 36.9 | 1 | 8.8 |
14–15 Dec | Mainichi/SSRC | 2,045 | 20 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 38 | 5 | 18 |
14–15 Dec | Kyodo News | 1,056 | 29.1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 5 | 2.3 | 5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.4[c] | 22.5 | 4.6 | 6.6 |
13–15 Dec | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,018 | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 36 | 6 | 12 |
6–9 Dec | Jiji Press | 1,152 | 19.1 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | – | 54.6 | 2.4 | 35.5 |
6–9 Dec | NHK | 1,224 | 28.7 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 35.6 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
7–8 Dec | ANN | 1,017 | 35.2 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 19.8 | 4.1 | 15.4 |
1 Dec | Hirofumi Yoshimura and Seiji Maehara succeed Nobuyuki Baba as leaders of Ishin.[1] | |||||||||||||||
30 Nov – 1 Dec | JNN | 1,003 | 28.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 35.6 | 4 | 7.4 |
23–24 Nov | Mainichi/SSRC | 1,919 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | 38 | – | 17 |
16–17 Nov | Kyodo News | 1,021 | 30.5 | 15.1 | 9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2[d] | 20.9 | 2.2 | 9.6 |
16–17 Nov | Senkyo.com/JX | 1,003 | 26.9 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | – | 31.9 | – | 5.0 |
15–17 Nov | NHK | 1,213 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 31.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 |
15–17 Nov | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 30 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 19 | 2 | 11 |
11–12 Nov | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 30 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | – | 30 | 4 | Tie |
11 Nov | The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed. | |||||||||||||||
8–11 Nov | Jiji Press | 1,190 | 20 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | – | 52.7 | 3.3 | 32.7 |
9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 36.6 | 15.8 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 20.8 |
9 Nov | Tetsuo Saito succeeds Keiichi Ishii as President of Komeito.[2] | |||||||||||||||
2–3 Nov | Asahi | 980 | 26 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | – | 29 | 10 | 3 |
2–3 Nov | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 25.8 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | – | 28.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 31.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
28–29 Oct | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 25 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 31 | 3 | 6 |
28–29 Oct | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 31.8 | 20.3 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | – | 15 | 1.6 | 11.5 |
27 Oct | Election results | 53.84%[e] | 26.7 | 21.2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
Voting intention (party vote)
2025
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | Ishin | Komei | Reiwa | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | None/Und. | No ans. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | Ishin | Komei | Reiwa | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | None/Und. | No ans. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14–15 Dec | Senkyo.com/JX | 996 | 23.8 | 22.7 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3[f] | 15.2 | – | 1.1 |
16–17 Nov | Senkyo.com/JX | 1,003 | 26.3 | 21.0 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.1[g] | 12.5 | – | 5.3 |
27 Oct | Election results | 53.84%[e] | 26.7 | 21.2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
Preferred coalition
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP–Komei–led coalition | CDP–led coalition[h] | Other | Und./ no ans. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13–15 Dec | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,018 | 41 | 41 | – | 18 | |
15–17 Nov | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 42[i] | 13[j] | 31[k] | 14 | |
11–12 Nov | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 44 | 37 | – | 19 | |
8–11 Nov | Jiji Press | 1,190 | 40.7 | 32.7 | – | 26.6 | |
9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 50 | 34 | – | 17 | |
2–3 Nov | Asahi | 980 | 43 | 32 | – | 25 | |
1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 44 | 41 | – | 15 | |
28–29 Oct | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 43 | 40 | – | 17 | |
28–29 Oct | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 37.4[l] | 24.6 | 31.6[m] | 6.4 |
Preferred prime minister
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | Ishiba LDP |
Noda CDP |
Tamaki DPFP |
Baba Ishin |
Saito Komei |
Yamamoto Reiwa |
Tamura JCP |
Others | NOT/ UD/NA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 13 |
2–3 Nov | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 46.1 | 17.4 | 10.2 | 2.7 | – | – | – | – | 23.6 |
1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 50 | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15 |
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
2025
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | Prime Minister | Approve | Disapprove | Und. / no answer | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–13 Jan | NHK | 1,211 | Shigeru Ishiba | 38.7 | 39.8 | 21.5 | 1.1 |
2–8 Jan | Morning Consult | N/A | 24.5 | 54 | 21.5 | 29.5 | |
4–5 Jan | JNN | 1,018 | 41.4 | 55.2 | 3.4 | 13.8 |
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | Prime Minister | Approve | Disapprove | Und. / no answer | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–22 Dec | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 774 | Shigeru Ishiba | 41 | 51 | 8 | 10 |
14–15 Dec | Senkyo.com/JX | 996 | 34.4[n] | 35.9[o] | 29.7 | 1.5 | |
14–15 Dec | Asahi | 1,049 | 36 | 43 | 21 | 7 | |
14–15 Dec | Sankei/FNN | 1,020 | 45.9 | 47.7 | 6.4 | 1.8 | |
14–15 Dec | Mainichi/SSRC | 2,045 | 30 | 53 | 17 | 23 | |
14–15 Dec | Kyodo News | 1,056 | 36.5 | 43.1 | 20.4 | 6.6 | |
13–15 Dec | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,018 | 39 | 48 | 13 | 9 | |
6–9 Dec | Jiji Press | 1,152 | 26.8 | 41.3 | 31.9 | 9.4 | |
6–9 Dec | NHK | 1,224 | 37.7 | 38.3 | 24 | 0.6 | |
7–8 Dec | ANN | 1,017 | 38.5 | 39.8 | 21.6 | 1.3 | |
26 Nov – 2 Dec | Morning Consult | N/A | 24.4 | 53.5 | 22.1 | 29.1 | |
30 Nov – 1 Dec | JNN | 1,003 | 42.1 | 52.4 | 5.5 | 10.3 | |
23–24 Nov | Mainichi/SSRC | 1,919 | 31 | 50 | 20 | 19 | |
16–17 Nov | Kyodo News | 1,021 | 40 | 38.8 | 21.2 | 1.2 | |
16–17 Nov | Senkyo.com/JX | 1,003 | 39.7[p] | 29.9[q] | 30.5 | 9.8 | |
15–17 Nov | NHK | 1,213 | 40.8 | 37 | 22.2 | 3.8 | |
15–17 Nov | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 46 | 46 | 8 | Tie | |
11–12 Nov | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 43 | 42 | 15 | 1 | |
11 Nov | The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed. | ||||||
8–11 Nov | Jiji Press | 1,190 | Shigeru Ishiba | 28.7 | 38.3 | 33 | 5.3 |
9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 38.3 | 37.3 | 24.4 | 1 | |
29 Oct – 4 Nov | Morning Consult | N/A | 23 | 53.4 | 23.6 | 29.8 | |
2–3 Nov | Asahi | 980 | 34 | 47 | 19 | 13 | |
2–3 Nov | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 43.8 | 49.8 | 6.4 | 6 | |
1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 38.9 | 57.3 | 3.8 | 18.4 | |
28–29 Oct | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 34 | 51 | 15 | 17 | |
28–29 Oct | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 32.1 | 52.2 | 15.7 | 20.1 |
See also
- Opinion polling for the 2024 Japanese general election
- Opinion polling for the 2021 Japanese general election
Notes
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.1%; Others: 0.2%
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.4%
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
- ^ a b Election turnout.
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.3%; Others: 1.0%
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.7%; Others: 1.4%
- ^ Some polls refer it as "Opposition–led coalition".
- ^ "Opposition parties cooperating with the LDP–Komeito government on each policy basis": 42%
- ^ "A coalition government between the opposition parties": 13%
- ^ "A coalition government between the LDP–Komeito and opposition parties": 30%; Others: 1%
- ^ LDP–Komei coalition: 18.1%; LDP–Komei–Ishin coalition: 19.3%
- ^ "A new framework through political realignment": 31.5%; Others: 0.1%
- ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 24.4%
- ^ Disapprove on balance: 15.9%; Completely disapprove: 20.0%
- ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 29.7%
- ^ Disapprove on balance: 13.3%; Completely disapprove: 16.6%
References
- ^ "Osaka Gov. Yoshimura elected head of Japan's No. 2 opposition party". Kyodo News. 2024-12-01.
- ^ "Land minister Tetsuo Saito takes helm of Japan coalition partner Komeito". Kyodo News. 2024-11-09.